America’s Fiscal Future: Examining the Need for a Commission
Hon. David M. Walker
Former Comptroller General of the United States
September 21, 2026
Chairman Arrington, Ranking Member Boyle, and members of the House Budget Committee, thank you for the opportunity to submit a statement for the record.
As a former Comptroller General of the United States and a former Public Trustee for Social Security and Medicare, I have expressed serious concerns regarding the need for social insurance reforms since the early 1990s, and for much broader fiscal reforms since 2003. Despite my efforts and those of others, Congress and the President have failed to act irrespective of which party controlled the Congress and the White House. As a result, our related challenges have grown dramatically and the time available to make needed reforms has decreased significantly.
Recently, total federal debt passed a $40 trillion milestone. This resulted in significant press attention. However, our financial challenge is much greater than this federal debt number. Based on the latest Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports and projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), I estimate that total federal liabilities and unfunded obligations will be at least $147 trillion as of September 30, 2026, an increase of about $11 trillion in one year!
Our budget deficit for July was an all-time record of $432 billion and the deficit for this fiscal year is estimated to be $2.1 trillion. CBO projected in February 2026 that deficits for the next 10 years are likely to be at least $24.4 trillion. Subsequent events make it likely that their next projection will be higher.
Foreign investors, especially China, have significantly reduced their holdings and appetite for U.S. debt. At the same time, our need to issue more debt combined with less demand to purchase it is resulting in higher interest rates and related costs. Interest costs now exceed $1 trillion. They are our second largest and fastest growing expense and are on track to be our single largest federal expense within 20 years, passing Social Security. And what do we get for interest? Nothing!
Unbelievably, the Congress only has one express annual Constitutional duty. That is to pass appropriations bills. Despite that fact, for the thirtieth year in a row, Congress will fail to pass all the appropriations bills by the beginning of the fiscal year. Shockingly, it has only done so four times since World War II! That is an F- in performance.
While a Continuing Resolution (CR) has been passed to avoid another government shutdown, the resulting failure to perform this basic Constitutional duty in a timely manner just serves to highlight how broken the current budget and appropriations process is. It is time for a major reform of these processes. Such proposed reforms should be within the scope of any statutory fiscal commission.
Our growing fiscal imbalance and mounting debt burdens combined with the impending exhaustion of the Social Security (OASI) and Medicare Part A (HI) Trust Funds in 2032 and 2033, respectively, should serve as a major motivator for the Congress to enact needed reforms. However, Congress has failed to act for many years. In my view, anyone who expects for the Congress to achieve the needed reforms through the regular order is delusional.
Importantly, the impending exhaustion of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds within the next six to seven years provides a clear deadline for action. At the same time, only God knows when we will have a debt crisis if we fail to address our broader fiscal challenge, and he is not telling us when that will come. However, it is not a matter of if it will come, it is only a matter of when unless we change course. And if it comes, it will have terrible economic, national security, foreign relations, and domestic tranquility implications. It is also likely to result in a global depression. No one should want this to happen, but it will if we fail to take steps to prevent it.
This hearing is focused on the bipartisan Fiscal Commission Act (HR 3289). I strongly support the need for a commission that would educate, engage, and activate the public while tilling the ground and setting the table for Congressional action on needed reforms. Recently, I engaged in a range of outreach activities to several important interest groups. Organizations like AARP, AFL-AIO, ATR, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. While these organizations can and will speak for themselves, I identified three potential amendments to HR 3289 that, if adopted, could significantly increase the chance of it passing and achieving needed reforms. They are noted below.
First, the Commission should make two separate sets of recommendations for consideration by Congress. One set of recommendations should be focused solely on assuring the solvency and sustainability of the Social Security program standing alone. The other set of recommendations should be designed to reduce debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP to a reasonable and sustainable level within 10-15 years. AARP has made it clear that Social Security needs to be treated separately from our overall fiscal challenge. In addition, Social Security reform cannot be considered as part of the Budget Reconciliation process, whereas the other needed reforms can be.
Second, consideration should be given to allowing for amendments to the Commission’s recommendations if they do not undercut the specific objectives of the commission. Namely, assuring the solvency and sustainability of the Social Security system for a stated period of time, and reducing debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP to a stated level by a future year certain.
Finally, ideally the non-member experts who are part of the Commission should be able to vote. Such was the case with the former Simpson-Bowles and Greenspan Commissions. Irrespective of whether they can vote or not, it is important that these people have the independence, credentials, and credibility to be taken seriously by the public. Candidly, they should take the lead on the citizen education and engagement effort given to extremely low rating of the Congress and its failure to act to address these issues for many years. Importantly, using independent and credible experts to make the case for Social Security reform was the approach the Clinton Administration took in 1997. I was honored to be selected as one of those experts after having served as a Public Trustee and before being appointed as Comptroller General of the United States. It was a very effective approach that AARP supported.
In the final analysis, some organizations will never support the need for a commission. They need to be heard but not heeded. However, I believe that most will support, or at least not oppose, a commission if the above issues are addressed. Irrespective of where individual organizations may stand, the need for a commission is clear and compelling.
In summary, our nation is at a critical crossroads. The decisions that we make or fail to make over the next few years will largely determine whether our future will be better than our past. In my view, passing a modified Fiscal Commission Act is an essential element to achieving needed reforms. In addition, adopting a debt/GDP based Constitutional amendment is also critical to forcing the Congress to achieve and sustain fiscal sanity. In that regard, since the Congress has failed to call a limited state-led Article V Convention to propose a fiscal responsibility amendment as far back as 1979. The time has come for a state Attorney General to sue Congress for its failure to act. This issue will ultimately have to be addressed by the Supreme Court if Congress continues to fail to call the Convention. Congress should act on H. Con. Res. 15, that is sponsored by Chairman Arrington, in order to avoid litigation.
Thank you again for the opportunity to provide this written statement for the record. Hopefully, the Congress will act on the issues that I raised in this statement. If it does, our future can be better than our past.